===CHAPTER 8 The Investor and Market Fluctuations

If you want to speculate do so with your eyes open, knowing that?

you will probably lose money in the end; be sure to limit the amount?

at risk and to separate it completely from your investment program.

★Market Fluctuations as a Guide to Investment Decisions：★

In fact, a classic definition of a “shrewd investor” was “one who?

bought in a bear market when everyone else was selling, and sold?

out in a bull market when everyone else was buying.”

★★★All things excellent are as difficult as they are rare.

往往那些最有意義和價值的事情，都是比較有難度不容易被學會的，

所以大眾中能做好這件事的人的密度都是偏低和稀少的。如果你掌握的有

難度的事情越多，那么你和其它個體的差異性就會越明顯，

你自己本身就會越有價值。

But has the price risen too high,and should you think of selling??

Or should you kick yourself for not having bought more shares when?

the level was lower??

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Or———worst thought of all———should you now give?

way to the bull-market atmosphere, become infected with the enthusiasm,?

the overconfidence and the greed of the great public (of which, after?

all, you are a part), and make larger and dangerous ★commitments承諾??

-

★★★even the intelligent investor is likely to need considerable?

will power to keep from following the crowd.

★★★If he is the right kind of investor he will take added?

satisfaction from the thought that his operations are exactly

opposite from those of the crowd.

The better a company’s record and prospects, the less relationship

the price of its shares will have to their book value賬面價值. But the?

greater the premium附加費 above book value, the less certain the basis?

of determining its intrinsic固有的 value. （泡沫？）

-

Thus we reach the final paradox悖論, that the more successful the?

company, the greater are likely to be the fluctuations漲跌 in?

the price of its shares.

★？A caution is needed here. A stock does not become a sound

investment merely because it can be bought at close to its asset value.

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The investor should demand, in addition, a satisfactory ratio

of earnings to price, a sufficiently strong financial position財務狀況,?

and the prospect that its earnings will at least be maintained over the years.

There are two chief morals to this story. The first is that the stock

market often goes far wrong, and sometimes an alert警惕的 and courageous?

investor can take advantage of its patent errors.

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The other is

that most businesses change in character and quality over the

years, sometimes for the better, perhaps more often for the worse.

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The investor need not watch his companies’ performance like a

hawk; but he should give it a good, hard look from time to time.

★★★

But note this important fact: The true investor scarcely ever is

forced to sell his shares, and at all other times he is free to disregard漠視

the current price quotation★時價/行情. He need pay attention to it and act

upon it only to the extent that it suits his book, and no more.

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Thus the investor who permits himself to be stampeded★逃竄 or unduly過度地?

worried by unjustified market declines in his holdings is perversely錯誤地/反常地?

transforming his basic advantage into a basic disadvantage.

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That man would be better off if his stocks had no market quotation at

all, for he would then be spared the mental anguish極度的痛苦?

caused him by other persons’ mistakes of judgment.